Daily Homicides in Mexico Decline Over a Third During President Sheinbaum, According to Official Statistics

The typical figure of everyday murders monthly in the country has fallen by more than a third since President Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, according to fresh government data. Nevertheless, security experts have cautioned that homicide data could fail to signal enhanced national safety.

Significant Drop in Per-Day Figures

There was an average of almost 55 homicides a day in last November versus roughly 87 when the President took the presidency in the previous September. This data was shared by the head of the nation's national safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The figures in killings that we’ve had during these past months is extremely notable,” the President stated, explaining that last month the smallest figure of homicides were recorded for any November in the past decade.

Recent Context and Government Strategy

Intense organized crime internal conflicts, alongside the administration's highly military campaigns to take on the drug gangs, have led to Mexico’s murder numbers soar in the past few years. The figure reached a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the country’s official data agency.

That meant Mexico a homicide figure over 4x greater than that of the United States. From that point, killings have been on the downward trend, falling to 33,550 the previous year. The President has attributed her national security approach for an ostensibly steeper reduction in homicides this year.

At a media briefing in the summer, the head of state declared: “There is a plan, we have monitoring of the plan, and we have detailed monitoring municipality by municipality in some cases. The approach works. And we have to persist at it each day.”

The key pillars of Sheinbaum’s security plan involve:

• Strengthening Mexico’s federal guard.
• Improving information gathering and investigative efforts.
• Enhanced collaboration between government authorities.

Expert Warnings and Data Concerns

However, public safety experts cautioned that using homicide statistics to assess the situation of peace was flawed. This is particularly true given the rise in different crimes such as abductions.

“That would be excellent information if this were a reduction, but I think we shouldn't just concentrate on the homicide numbers and say: ‘Oh well, great,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican organised crime. “I would be tentatively optimistic.”

As reported by the public policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, killings in total declined by over 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year versus the identical period the previous year. Yet, disappearances have increased by 15% and in some regions have increased by as much as 200%.

“Data on murders is not valid for estimating the reality of insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and prosecutors who lack the ability or the will to properly recognize and categorize corpses. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the capability to conceal violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas noted that relying on monthly means of everyday killings was similarly concerning because it could hide days when there were particularly spiking levels of murders.

“Using the daily mean makes surges of violent crime invisible,” he stated.

Arrests and Seizures as Metrics of Success

Where the administration can point to the success of its safety plan is on detentions and confiscations. Close to 40,000 suspects were detained between last October and this past November for major offenses, according to government data. Over 20,000 weapons were confiscated and 311 tons of drugs confiscated.

“Donald Trump cannot claim President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because actually she is doing a lot with these thousands of detentions, many thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical degrading of criminal groups. It’s extremely in political terms profitable,” stated Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Public Frustration

However in spite of these efforts, Mexico remains grappling with extreme violence, with multiple regions in the grip of cartel-fueled violence. In the previous month there was a high-profile assassination of a popular mayor in the state of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders killed in the last 12 months.

Weeks later, thousands of youth demonstrated in Mexico City and across the nation to show their outrage at graft and drug violence.

“The administration presents [data] in a way to build a picture of improvement. From a political standpoint it’s extremely potent, from a social perspective it’s extremely questionable,” Vargas concluded.