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At first, Donald Trump appeared to embrace a resolute stance regarding Ukraine. Following making warnings of "serious consequences" during the summer should Russia's president continued hindering ceasefire discussions, Trump eventually introduced substantial sanctions on the Russian biggest petroleum corporations, these major energy companies. This move seriously impacted the Russian leader's capacity to fund his military invasion in the region.

However, with his newly presented 28-point peace plan for the conflict, which was created by US and Russian diplomats excluding Ukraine's or European participation, Trump has apparently gone back to his favorable to Russia position.

Benefiting Invasion

The former president's plan would essentially favor Putin for invading a sovereign nation while leaving Ukraine's political freedom in danger. Despite bold statements that "The nation's independence will be confirmed", much of the proposal in reality undermine that very autonomy. This constitutes a Russian ideal would likely be a disaster for Ukraine.

Demonstrating his business past, Trump seems to consider the war as a mere border issue, implying handing Putin a section of Ukrainian territory will appease the leader. Yet, Russia's military campaign is not merely about dominating a destroyed area of industrial-devastated land in eastern Ukraine. It is about the nation's democratic governance – and the Russian leader's obvious desire to destroy it so it ceases to acts as an appealing standard for the Russia's population of the accountable leadership that his deepening authoritarian rule denies them.

Territorial Surrenders

Although maintaining in place the currently split Ukrainian provinces of these areas, the initiative would force the nation to abandon the entire Donetsk province. Beyond favoring Russia with area that its troops have been unable to seize in more than a decade of fighting, this surrender would leave Ukrainian defensive positions critically compromised.

Donetsk is the location of Ukraine's well-known "fortress belt", the fortified defensive positions that constitute a key obstacle to enemy progress. Trump would have the Ukrainian military abandon these defenses, giving Putin a clear route to Kyiv should he eventually choose to resume the war.

Military Restrictions

Then, in a action that would enable renewed conflict simpler for the Russian military, Trump would require the nation to reduce the size of its troops from their present large number soldiers to a maximum of six hundred thousand. Notably, Trump's proposal sets no such limits on Russia's military.

In what appears as a accommodation to Putin's efforts to portray the nation's legitimate administration as extremists, Trump's plan states: "All Nazi ideology and practices must be rejected and forbidden." Seemingly to highlight this aspect, it requires that "The nation will hold political contests in this period" of a peace deal. Meanwhile, the proposal places no condition that Putin risk his dictatorship by allowing democratic processes in Russia.

Security Guarantees

Admittedly, the plan includes the Russian Federation promise not to "invade other states" and to "establish in regulation its policy of peaceful relations towards Europe and Ukraine". But given that the Russian leadership has broken comparable agreements in the previous instances – for example the 1994 agreement, in which the Russian government pledged to respect Ukraine's sovereignty in return for relinquishing its Soviet-era nuclear weapons, and the Minsk accords, in which Moscow agreed to a truce and a return of captured land in the region to Ukrainian control – for what reason should we have confidence in Putin on this occasion?

For this reason Ukraine has been so adamant on international protection assurances. While the proposal promises a "strong coordinated defense action" if the Russian Federation resume its aggression, and includes that "Ukraine will receive dependable protection assurances", the specifics vary from fuzzy to alarming. The initiative would not only block the nation alliance membership but also preclude Nato members from deploying military personnel on Ukrainian territory, thereby precluding the reassurance force, presumptively led by European powers, on which the Ukrainian government had been depending to stop Russia from replenishing his diminished troops, rearming, and attacking again.

Global Reaction

An additional side agreement apparently would offer Ukraine with a Nato-style defense commitment, in which any future "significant, deliberate, and sustained armed attack" by Russia on Ukraine "will be treated as an attack threatening the peace and security of the allied countries." That suggests a military response. But in contrast to a strong Ukrainian military – Ukraine's most reliable protection against additional hostilities – the credibility of the parallel accord would depend on the willingness of Western powers, like Trump, to react militarily to Putin's aggression, something they have {not